Oscars 2013

A couple people have been talking about Argo, being a possibility, and I would say it's a lock right now. In fact, it's kind of the frontunner. It's got appeal with audiences, (and older ones at that) an actor-turned director (who's been knocking them out), a very insider humor, and a "political relevancy" that's kind of vaguely liberal at times without denying American awesomesauce. And it's more of an out-of-nowhere thing than Lincoln or Les Miserables. For Lincoln, the movie is said to kind of be anti-electric, and while Speilberg is one of Hollywood's biggest of the big, his track record for Oscar-baiting is kind of bad. Les Miserables is getting some early good word, but it suffers from two major curses; Musicals are kind of the Memorial Day Weekend blockbusters of the Oscar season. They generate a lot hype sight unseen, so they're very prone to backlash. And secondly, it seems like one of those "Rookie directors get a top prize first time at bat, and then the rest of their movies suck forever" curses, and it's kind of surprising that Tom Hooper would break that. King's Speech was the most indifferently directed movie to win that prize since the 50's. Another movie that could steal everything is Silver Linings Playbook, which supposedly runs on feel-good.

Skyblade wrote:Les Miserables is getting some early good word, but it suffers from two major curses; Musicals are kind of the Memorial Day Weekend blockbusters of the Oscar season. They generate a lot hype sight unseen, so they're very prone to backlash. And secondly, it seems like one of those "Rookie directors get a top prize first time at bat, and then the rest of their movies suck forever" curses, and it's kind of surprising that Tom Hooper would break that. King's Speech was the most indifferently directed movie to win that prize since the 50's. Another movie that could steal everything is Silver Linings Playbook, which supposedly runs on feel-good.

I agree that it's hard to know how good Les Misérables will really be until we see it, but I think Tom Hooper is hardly an unproven talent/rookie. The King's Speech was his first movie to hit big, but he's been at it for more than 10 years, mostly in England though (except for the John Adams miniseries he did, I guess). I remember seeing his Elizabeth I miniseries, which was great, as was The Damned United.

Silver Linings Playbook won the public's prize at the Toronto International Film Fest. I couldn't get tickets, but everyone who saw it said it was great.

I would agree that Tom Hooper has talent, but out of the group that were nominated for Best Director the year he won, his work was arguably the least important to the overall success of the movie. And unless Les Mis gets crazy good reviews, I don't see him being nominated again (this year). On the other hand, I think Ben Affleck for Best Director is almost a mortal lock at this point. He's proven that his success as a director is not a fluke, and his movie is a critical and financial success. I think we can also expect Denzel Washington to get nominated for Flight, and possibly Don Cheadle as well.

I also think Lincoln is going to do well nominations wise, but Speilberg could very well not get nominated. I would guess DDL, Sally Field, and Tommy Lee Jones will probably all get nominated, and Tony Kushner for adapted screenplay. Some people have also speculated that perhaps Skyfall may have a shot at the "blockbuster movie that gets a Best Picture nomination" slot. That I'm skeptical about. However, I think we may be able to just hand the Best Song category to Adele. I'm very interested to see if The Avengers manages to pick up any nominations outside of the technical categories. If Joss could get nominated for his screenplay or as best director I would probably die of squeeage.

I've heard that "Skyfall" will be ineligible for Best Song because it samples a bit of the Bond theme. I don't think there's been a definite ruling either way yet.

The reviews for Lincoln coming out now seem very strong, but I don't know, Spielberg and all the actors who would get nominated have won already and sometimes the Academy would rather to give awards to new people. I can see it getting many nominations but not wins, plus there's the thing with Spielberg never directing an actor to an Oscar winning performance. Spielberg missing a director nomination while Ben Affleck gets one would be really strange but I suppose anything is possible.

The Master sort of flopped even by Paul Thomas Anderson standards and Joaquin dissed the whole Oscar campaigning process. Uncle Harvey has other actors to push who will be happy to play the game, so a total miss for Joaquin would not totally surprise me.

I think Denzel and DDL's chances for winning will both be hampered by having won twice already. If Les Mis turns out well people can just vote for Hugh.

Anne Hathaway is probably the frontrunner for supporting actress.

The way I see it is that while I think DDL, Sally Field, Tommy Lee Jones, and Denzel all have an excellent chance of being nominated, I don't think any of them will necessarily win. As you said, with the exception of Jones, they've won multiple Oscars, and the Academy is very stingy about anyone winning a third. The person with probably the most critically acclaimed performance this year so far is John Hawkes who I'd love to see win, but he may just score a nomination.

Honestly, the most disappointing thing to me so far is that no one is talking much about female actors this year. Once again, it seems like people are saying that Best Actor will probably be the most competitive category. It just speaks volumes about the dearth of really good roles for women. I think Anne Hathaway does have the best shot of winning Best Supporting Actress, but I do think Amy Adams will get a lot of attention for The Master.

I didn't know that "Skyfall" would be ineligible because of the inclusion of a sample of the Bond theme. I guess that explains why Bond songs don't get nominated that often since a LOT of them incorporate part of the Bond theme into the song. Which is such a shame because I'm a sucker for a good Bond song (I have all of them, with the exception of "Another Way to Die" which was terrible).

I've thought Daniel Day-Lewis was guaranteed the Best Actor Oscar since he was cast in the film, and I still think that. Even if he has won twice, and has won recently, I don't think the Academy will be able to resist DDL playing Lincoln. I could easily see them inviting him into the three-time winners club. He's widely respected and doesn't seem to have made any negative impressions in Hollywood.

I'd say John Hawkes probably has the best chance if they don't want to give him a triple win, though.

Everything I've read about The Sessions talks about Helen Hunt being a lock for a nomination. I've also seen Anne Hathaway, Jennifer Lawrence (for The Silver Linings Playbook), Amy Adams, Keira Knightly, Naomi Watts, Quvenzhane Wallis, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Helen Mirren, Jessica Chastain...I think the Actress categories the last few years have been really strong, and I don't think this year will be an exception.

Statistically, male speaking roles in film still outnumber female speaking roles by a large margin, but I don't think there's been any shortage of award-worthy female performances the past few years. I remember the days where it felt like the Academy had to scramble just to fill those five slots. Last year there were a lot of leading performances to choose from (and in fact, I would have gladly traded Streep, Williams, and Close for Theron, Dunst, and Swinton). There are more good roles for men than for women, but I do think it's getting better.

I think a bigger issue is the lack of female directors, and the fact that women-centered films are rarely considered to be Best Picture-worthy.

I don't think Skyfall will get the "blockbuster" spot. People are always saying "Oh, this is the definitive James Bond movie" and then move on. It might actually make an appearance in someof the techs, though. Also, in most years, Avengers and Dark Knight Rises would be unlikely to be nominated for higher awards, but in the same year, it's impossible. I think The Hobbit could grab a nod, in the second tier anyways, but I don't think it's going to make the same waves as the trilogy. It doesn't have the same "this was an uphill accomplishment" story of being made, and I think squeezing three movies from one book is going to look more blatantly mercenary. It's not going to be that cycle redux, though. They might not even feel the need to award a huge blockbuster if they have a smattering of regular dramas like Lincoln and Argo performing as they have. Of course, this doesn't do much for the "attracting youth" factor, but the voters don't care about that sort of thing, in fact, they're probably pretty proud of that.

Yeah I really doubt Skyfall or any of the other big action movies gets the blockbuster nod. I doubt there will even be a nomination, Health Ledger as the Joker was an outlier thanks to his untimely passing. Despite the best picture win, the LOTR movies never garnered an acting nod.

Ian McKellan was nominated for LoTR.

I think Heath Ledger would have been nominated either way (this was the same year Robert Downey Jr was nominated for Tropic Thunder) but I don't think they would have been willing to give it to him had he not passed.

I just saw Flight. It was good, but not great HOWEVER, Denzel Washington was brilliant and I think if anyone is going to challenge Daniel Day-Lewis (who I think deservedly is probably a lock) its going to be him (also deservedly) also that crash should pick up some technical nominations cause, damn.

Denzel was great. So happy to see him acting for real again.

This is just a great year for movies in general. Last year I could not have been more "meh" on the Best Picture nominees - the only one I liked was The Artist and everything else was okay to boring (minus Extremely Long and Incredibly Cloying, which I did not see on principle). This year, I've seen three Best Picture locks (Argo, Lincoln, Life of Pi) and one possible BP nom if it goes to 10 films (Moonrise Kingdom) and loved them all. I'm guaranteed to love Les Miserables and I'm super excited for Beasts of the Southern Wild (to rent, obvs) and Zero Dark Thirty. Great, great year.

After seeing Lincoln I would be very surprised if DDL loses Best Actor. Sure, it would be his third Oscar but the performance feels undeniable. The only reason there's any suspense at all as to the outcome is because he's won twice already and people aren't sure Academy members will want to give him a third. If he were up for just his first or even second Oscar, this category would be the acting equivalent of Adele's 2012 Grammy sweep, aka total domination everyone knew was going to happen months in advance. Even now, it still might turn out that way.

Speaking of Adele, I saw a comment that "Skyfall" was just a "Diamonds Are Forever" ripoff and now I can't unhear it, so if it doesn't get nominated I won't be as outraged as I would've been a few weeks ago.

Tarantino has just finished tinkering with Django Unchained. I think it's best shot at Oscar is probably DiCaprio in Supporting Actor. It looks like a very different sort of role for him and he's never won an Oscar before. Tommy Lee Jones is probably the BSA frontrunner for now but I can see him being overcome in a way I can't with DDL in Actor.

Speaking of Adele, I saw a comment that "Skyfall" was just a "Diamonds Are Forever" ripoff and now I can't unhear it, so if it doesn't get nominated I won't be as outraged as I would've been a few weeks ago.

I don't hear it. There's like a few notes for "Let the skyfall..." that line up with "Diamonds are for..." but otherwise, I can't map the two of them together.

Django Unchained screened last night and the biggest raves were for Samuel L. Jackson and Christoph Waltz (who is being campaigned as a lead). Leo is getting praise, he might get nominated, but Uncle Harvey will back the guy with the best chance of winning.

And let the precursor awards begin. Zero Dark Thirty is getting a good head start as the NYFCC and the National Board of Review have both named it Best Film.

I was pleased that the National Board of Review included The Perks of Being a Wallflower on its top 10 list because I adored that movie, but they also thought Bradley Cooper gave a better performance than Daniel Day-Lewis, to which I say "..." Anyway, Perks has no Oscar hopes (MAYBE a nod in Screenplay, at most) so I was glad to see one group give it some recognition.

The NYFCC also gave Supporting Actor to Matthew McConaughey, and I wonder if he'll sneak in and be the Downey Jr./McCarthy of the year.

You forgot the best. Leo won at NBR! I'm so excited. This is so his year! (she said in 2011, 2010, 2009...) Heee. But seriously, it was such a cool surprise.

I really loved Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook, so I'm happy with that win. He needed it more than DDL. DDL will likely still win the Oscar, but Cooper needed some attention to even get a nomination.

Leo is totes winning getting nominated again this year!

I haven't seen Silver Linings Playbook yet but I'm expecting to like it, and I'm wondering if Cooper will take Joaquin Phoenix's slot for the actual Oscars, since DDL, Hawkes, Jackman, and Denzel seem like locks. Or maybe that's wishful thinking - I haven't seen The Master yet but everyone I know who has described it as gross and misogynistic.

Yeah, BC was very very good and I'm sorry the movie is being trumped by this years "movie no one has seen yet therefore we pick IT" Zero Dark Thirty. I'm not saying it's not worthy, but, really it gets a little tiresome how far out of their way they go to give it to movie that hasn't screened for anyone but critics. I'm also a little surprised there's been nothing for Les Miserables.

queenofdenile wrote:I haven't seen The Master yet but everyone I know who has described it as gross and misogynistic.

I have seen it, and the main character has some truly fucked-up attitudes towards women, but he's fucked up about life in general. It seemed clear to me that the movie wasn't endorsing the views of someone that unhinged.

But "unhinged" is exactly why I don't think Joaquin Phoenix should get it--there's Method, and then there's being completely out of control and letting your id do all the work. (If any acting nods go to The Master, I'd pick Philip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams.)

Glad to see Beasts of the Southern Wild getting some love. Awards have gotten slightly better about having a memory too short to remember summer releases. Zero Dark Thirty has got to have Bigelow's recent win boosting it up.

(...but Frankenweenie for Best Animated film? Really? Is the pool really that shallow? I'm assuming the Academy will let Pixar keep up their streak.)

Frankenweenie isn't even the best Halloween themed animated movie this year. I'd put Paranorman or Brave as the winner there, though I didn't really get that excited by either of them. Brave probably ekes it out. But I'd rather see Madagascar 3 win than Frankenweenie. I kind of hated that movie. It was the one movie I took my kids to this year that I tried to pawn off on my wife, and it was somehow even worse than I anticipated.

The Animated Feature category is actually weirdly open this year. Brave hasn't been that hotly received, Rise of the Guardians is getting a lot of press as a money-loser, and Wreck It Ralph is about video games.

I actually think Phoenix is out. Master is kind of an also-ran and Phoenix doesn't play the game enough to be remembered. Silver Linings is being touted as a Crowdpleaser, but it needs an actual crowd. One of the spoilers I'm throwing in is Jean-Louis Trintignant for Amour.

I think Joaquin will still pull out a nom. I wasn't terribly impressed, but no one can deny he committed.

I think Supporting Actor is going to be a bloodbath. So many contenders. DeNiro, DiCaprio, Samuel L. Jackson, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones, Ewan McGregor, Matthew McConaughey, and then newbies like Dwight Henry, Michael Pena, Jason Clarke, Eddie Redmayne.

I think Best Picture this year could be interesting. I'm wondering if somehow Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty will cancel each other out (since both see to be emerging as the favorites), and somehow that will lead to a win for Les Miserables or even Silver Linings Playbook.

I'm just pissed that Silver Linings Playbook is't playing anywhere near me, and ZDT doesn't go wide until January. I really really want to see both movies. I love Kathryn Bigelow, and I am totally rooting for her to win a second Oscar.

I'm not sure how they would cancel each other out in favor of a movie people like less. Les Mis and Silver Linings only really stand a chance of winning if they're big audience favorites. It's kind of a funny year, though, in that so many of the Oscar contenders are helmed by people who have been rewarded, in some cases, rather recently. It's generally not going to be coronation filled. Argo was briefly a front runner because everyone was all "Dark Horse! Dark Horse!" Mirrored the presidential elections to an extent.