Oscars 2014

It's fall everybody, so now the contenders are being released.

I think Gravity is the first absolute lock of the season. It's not only got a ton of acclaim and starpower, but it's a very talked about movie amongst average moviegoers. I think Sandra Bullock will probably get another nomination, though definitely not a win, coming so soon off Blindside. The other major movie which isn't quite as much lock but is probably going to get in on the sheer acclaim and talk is 12 Years a Slave. I can see it coming down to those two as a battle between expertly-made crackerjack filmmaking, and raw, visceral cinema.

American Hustle is talked about, and unless it's really disappointing, it will probably get in, but I think I can see it being one of those movies nobody has a problem with, but nobody is surprised by. (I mean, it's David O Russel working with most of the people he's worked with, in a 70's era crime movie, with the word "American" in the title. I can already see it playing on TNT all Sunday.)

There are actually a couple of movies about the African American experience this year, including Fruitville Station and The Butler. I think either would be left out in a five picture lineup, but either could get in. I'm kind of thinking The Butler still won't make it, since the movie is still considered more competent than fresh, and Best Picture still won't be hurting for more mainstream entries.

Also, we might see Tom Hanks finally getting a nomination after a ten year actress, and Cate Blanchett is, in my opinion, the frontrunner for Best Actress.

Cate for Blue Jasmine, yes? The movie was... fine, in the scattered way that late-era Woody Allen has been. But she was beyond excellent.

I think Clooney could possibly sneak into Supporting Actor if AMPAS goes for Gravity in a big way. He can get an acting nod without having to give the big tour-de-force performance.

Right now, I'm seeing Best Picture coming down to 12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity w/12YAS being viewed by Oscar voters as more "important" and emotionally engaging which might be enough for McQueen to win Best Director despite what's widely regarded as a towering directorial achievement for Cuarón. Think Fincher losing out to Tom Hooper when The King's Speech overtook The Social Network in the 2010 race.

I tend to think that Cuaron is going to be awfully hard to beat for Best Director unless Hollywood decides to go all in and award everything to 12 Years a Slave. McQueen hasn't been nominated for an Oscar yet, and Cuaron has, so I could see that helping his cause among the directors branch. But then again the whole Tom Hooper vs. David Fincher thing happened, so who knows.

Cate Blanchett is pretty much a mortal lock for one of the Best Actress spots, and she's probably the prohibitive favorite. She might get some competition from Julia Roberts in August: Osage County depending on how the reviews for that film are. And of course, Sandra Bullock is going to be in the mix.

I've heard that Chiwetel Ejiofor is amazing in 12 Years a Slave so he's probably going to be nominated for Best Actor. Other than him, Im having a hard time thinking of movies that are actor's showcases. Bruce Dern may get in there for Nebraska for the "older guy we want to reward for his whole career" slot.

One of the wild cards as far as I see it depends on what happens with Martin Scosese's The Wolf of Wall Street. There are rumors it may not make its planned release date in time for this year's Oscars. I'm hoping it does because it looks entertaining, and I happen to like good, entertaining movies (see: Argo). I've come to realize that Leo DiCaprio really is a great actor, and I can't help rooting for him to take one of the gold guys home.

There's Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyer's Club, it's one of those transformative autobiographical things, and he's talked about as having an "artistic resurgence".

I think DiCaprio might have unfortunately locked himself in the unenviable position of being too consistent. There's no "Oh, Leo's doing something respectable this time, better give him something." He needs either a really out-of-left-field performance, or a really ope year.

My two big ponies this year are Redford for the win, cause I've loved him my whole life and I didn't realize he's never won an Oscar for acting, and Michael B. Jordan for a nomination. I think MBJ will have a tough road since that category is VERY competitive, but he's so incredibly talented and Fruitvale Station was excellent.

Gravity seems like a Director lock to me. Offhand, I don't know Sandra Bullock's competition, but her performance was 9000x what she won for in The Blindside. I kind of doubt Clooney sneaks in for supporting, especially if he's lead/also supporting in Monuments Men.

I am not a betting person, but if I were, I place my bet on 12 Years a Slave because it won the People's Choice Award at TIFF, which is a consistent Oscar predictor.  

I watched the trailer today and with this review, I am not too sure I will be able to watch it without feeling raw and haunted.

aficionada wrote:I am not a betting person, but if I were, I place my bet on 12 Years a Slave because it won the People's Choice Award at TIFF, which is a consistent Oscar predictor.  

I watched the trailer today and with this review, I am not too sure I will be able to watch it without feeling raw and haunted.

I think 12 Years A Slave will probably win as long as it doesn't peak too soon. Sometimes too AMPAS wants to like what it likes, rather being told something is "important", which I think was part of the problem with Lincoln last year and The Social Network a few years back, but 12YAS sounds much more emotionally engaging than either, and the film that moves voters the most is the one that often wins Best Picture. Gravity will be considered an amazing directorial achievement but up against a "Schindler's List of slavery movies" that might not be enough. Cuarón seems better at the whole media/Q&A aspect of movie hyping than McQueen, but if they go for 12YAS in a big way, its director will probably win as well.

I just watched Philomena and it is just absolutely wonderful - great movie. I also found out it was awarded Best Screenplay in the Venice International Film Festival (for Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope) and was awarded People's Choice Award Runner-Up in TIFF.

I really hope it gets recognized because it is a great movie - just well done and balanced and emotional without manipulating you.

The Best Actor Pool is an embarrassment of riches of generations of movie stars, Hollywood legends, former teen idols, seasoned character actors and journeymen finally breaking through. I feel sorry for whomever will miss out. Bruce Dern, Matthew McConaughey, Tom Hanks, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Robert Redford, Joaquin Phoenix, Idris Elba*, Leonardo DiCaprio, Forrest Whitaker and not even including the excellent Ethan Hawke and Michael B. Jordan who won't get a look in - it is nuts.

There is not as much certainty among the actresses, and as much as I would like to see Delpy and Bejo up there, they are unlikely. Dench, Streep etc are no brainer nominees, but no one has really overtaken Cate Blanchett as a performer who made a real mark this year.

* If he were a show-and-pony campaigner who dutifully pimped himself out like most, his nomination would be a given, but he doesn't seem to be going there.

So I think the locks for best picture are 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle and Gravity, although I think the latter is probably no longer competitive as a winner. Nebraska and Captain Phillips are probably also assured, given this is larger-than-five field. As for the rest? I think the reception amongst a lot of older viewers made people write Wolf of Wall Street off, but it seems to have found an audience with youths (Or at least youths who can be admitted into the theater). Martin Scorsese, saved by the tumblr generation. He could still get a director nomination. The younger art house set is also really into Her, but we'll have to see whether or not the Academy looks at a small scale, well-done sci-fi movie and goes "Does not compute". The anti-Her is probably Saving Mr. Banks, which will see an easy nod for Thompson and probably Hanks, however Meryl Streep recently talked smack about Disney whitewashing. The Butler has been a bit of an afterthought, but the SAG nom means it has actor support. Inside Llewyn Davis is likely out, which is unfortunate, as well as Ausage Orange, which is not.

I can't stop giggling about the fact that this phrase can now be uttered: "Academy Award Nominee 'Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa.'"

Or two-time Academy Award Nominee Jonah Hill!

Who would have figured Barkhad Abdi getting nominated without Tom Hanks?

I wouldn't be upset if "Happy" pulled off the upset over "Let It Go". That Lana Del Rey song from The Great Gatsby that seemed to be a shoo-in last summer kind of withered and died, though, didn't it?

"Two-time Oscar Nominee, Jonah Hill." What is this world?? A little hurt that Idris Elba didn't get a nom only because he was so good in Mandela.

Jonah hill is a celeb I am not fond of but I can't deny I think he deserved both his noms. I'm ok with all the noms, I'm sad Redford wasn't able to sneak in and Tom Hanks but I'm delighted Bale was nominated. And DiCaprio who I thought was hilarious in that film.

I'm most strongly rooting for all involved in 12 years a slave but having watched the majority of the nominees I can say there is no one where I'm like okay why are you here? Like I thought Julia Roberts gave the most best performance in that film and Meryl was way ott but she's Meryl and was still really entertaining.

I've been pleasantly surprised at how good Jonah Hill is in dramatic rolls. He definitely goes against the traditional Hollywood type, and that's cool.

I can't stand Jonah Hill's face, which I admit probably influences the fact that I don't understand why he was nominated. I do think DiCaprio was fantastic in WoWS, although the movie itself was kinda long and rambly and indulgent of graphic sex for little purpose. I would be a little sad if DiCaprio won for this movie, when he's been so good in so many other movies I liked better. I guess it'd be funny, though, if he won for this instead of the Oscar-baity Blood Diamond

I liked American Hustle, but I honestly wouldn't have given it four acting nominations and I thought it had hellacious pacing issues. That said, at this point, I would not be surprised at all if Lawrence won AGAIN. I think Cuaron is a lock for director, and I loved Gravity.

I'm disappointed Prisoners only got one nomination, but I guess the acting categories were packed.

Binky wrote:I can't stand Jonah Hill's face, which I admit probably influences the fact that I don't understand why he was nominated. I do think DiCaprio was fantastic in WoWS, although the movie itself was kinda long and rambly and indulgent of graphic sex for little purpose. I would be a little sad if DiCaprio won for this movie, when he's been so good in so many other movies I liked better. I guess it'd be funny, though, if he won for this instead of the Oscar-baity Blood Diamond

They gave Scorsese an Oscar for a remake instead of one of his original films so anything is possible. I have no real feelings for Leo DiCaprio either way but it'd be nice if he won something. God love him, he's been waiting a while now. (This is where my brownie leader-ness comes out. Give the lad a badge or something so he has something to take home to show his parents!!)

In terms of best actor, I really wanted Redford to get a nomination, because he was so great in All Is Lost. I also have a soft sport for Bruce Dern. But the truth is I'd have to say the best actor this year in my opinion was McConaughey. He was just that good in Dallas Buyers Club.

We watched Fruitvale Station last night, and I'm surprised it received zero nominations. It was such a powerful film, and the acting was superb.

I'm really excited for all the attention Philomena has gotten. I emerged from the movie theatre thinking, how engaging and powerful that small movie was! If you've noticed my FB, tumblr and goodreads, I am stanning for it. It would be fantastic if it won for screenplay. It would be crazy if it pulled the upset and won the Oscars! WOuld not be the first time a small Brit movie wins (but it's not in the same league).

In terms of American Hustle earning acting nominations...my favourites were Amy Adams and Christian Bale b/c I thought they were magnetic and conveyed that quite well. I am a fan of Christian Bale's acting. I've always found him magnetic and engaging and the roles he takes on are challenging and some of them are not pleasant, others are uncomfortable and some are simply magical.

Anyway, I would like to see 12 Years a Slave win.

mrinsouciance wrote:We watched Fruitvale Station last night, and I'm surprised it received zero nominations.  It was such a powerful film, and the acting was superb.

I love Sally Hawkins and will forever think she was robbed of a nomination for Happy-Go-Lucky but, man, I don't know how you nominate her performance in Blue Jasmine over Octavia Spencer's in Fruitvale Station. That moment when she's trying to reconcile herself to the fact of her son's death and says, "I didn't think they'd hurt my baby..." just about ended me, it was so note perfect.

On another note, I'm shocked that Stories We Tell missed in the Documentary category. It was one of my favorite movies of the year and it seemed to be doing pretty well with the non-Oscar awarding bodies.

Jordan Baker wrote:

On another note, I'm shocked that Stories We Tell missed in the Documentary category. It was one of my favorite movies of the year and it seemed to be doing pretty well with the non-Oscar awarding bodies.

That's a big miss for me too. It was such a good movie. I'm really sad it didn't get a nomination. I've heard however by many critics that The Act of Killing is so powerful, I'm expecting that to take it.

Glad to see Philomena getting buzz. I thought it was really good, but I didn't expect it to get recognized over another small movie like All is Lost, which was also deserving.

With all the strong films this year about African-Americans, and all the strong performances by African-Americans, it seems pretty token-y to me that each major category has just one nomination from 12 Years a Slave.

inversed wrote:With all the strong films this year about African-Americans, and all the strong performances by African-Americans, it seems pretty token-y to me that each major category has just one nomination from 12 Years a Slave.

"Sorry, The Butler, we've filled our quota this year. Better luck next time!"